Prof Shivaji Rao, environmental scientist, warns of severe catastrophe downstream of Polavaram due to any dam break and other threats. Also he mentions large number of villages upstream getting adversely affected over and above what is reported by the AP government as affected areas due to backwater effect. The damage is likely to affect about 369 villages. Magnitude of this nature was estimated by the study conducted by Aranyika (Bharath Bhushan, Murali et al 1992, 1994)
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There are several other dimensions of the Polavaram project that require the work to be stopped immediately.
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Any approvals given by any department to the Polavaram project are null and void as the designs that are taking shape on ground are totally different from the project report that was the basis of these approvals. The current design of Polavaram project pursued by YS Rajashekar Reddy government is in violation of the decades old ‘interstate agreement’ that referred to entirely different project design
Polavaram design was considered highly faulty, at a later stage, by none other than Dr K L Rao himself
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Prof Shivaji Rao’s draws attention to several technical and legal dimensions of the controversial dam that threatens to wipe out downstream districts of Andhra Pradesh
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Bharath Bhushan
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Polavaram is a Killer Dam, says Prof Sivaji Rao
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To save the Bhadrachalam’s most sacred Rama Temple and several tribal villages from submersion by the Polavaram dam which can be made people-friendly by converting it into a barrage the arguments to be advanced by Chattisgarh and Orissa in the Supreme Court are likely to be on the following lines for convincing A.P state to agree for replacement of the Big Dam by a smaller Barrage as previously suggested by Dr. A.N.Khosla, former Governor of Orissa
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1. The states of Orissa and Chattisgarh consider Dr. K.L.Rao, the former Union Minister for Water Resources as an Eminent authority on irrigation projects like big dams. In the case of Polavaram project he made a frank statement (Indian Express news paper from Vijayawada, dated 30-4-1983) that the Polavaram dam is highly under-designed and hence a prescription for disaster. Dr.K.L..Rao ruled out the possibility of diverting surplus Godavari waters to the Krishna owing to defective designing of the Polavaram project only 1800 ft spillway was provided in the Polavaram project to clear 40 lakh cusecs of flood waters in the Godavari as against 13,000 ft long Dowlaiswaram anicut designed by Sir Arthur Cotton. Even Prakasam barrage was [over Krishna River at Vijayawada] designed to 6,280 ft. long though the flood water would not be more than 12 lakh cusecs, Dr.Rao said
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It was simple arithmetic to understand that the Polavaram design would not work, he said.
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2. In the light of these serous technical comments from a very experienced expert Dr.K.L.Rao, the Orissa and Chattisgarh state Governments demand for a revision of the Polavaram project to ensure safety of people in all the states.
The intellectuals and the common people of Orissa and Chattisgarh have also carefully studied various websites on Polavaram project including the following ones.
http://profshivajirao.googlepages.com/polavaramdam-0
http://profshivajirao.googlepages.com/polavaramdam-1
http://profshivajirao.googlepages.com/polavaramdam-2
http://profshivajirao.googlepages.com/polavaramdam-3
http://profshivajirao.googlepag es.com/polavaramdamimages-4
http://profshivajirao.googlepages.com/polavaramdam-5
http://profshivajirao.googlepages.com/polavaramdam-6
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In the light of the above expert views presented in detail on Polavaram project we demand for reconsideration for the replacement of the proposed dam with a barrage to divert 80 TMC of Godavari water into Krishna River as promised by the A.P. state
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3. At the end of Paragraph 110 of the Bachawat Tribunal report it has been emphasized that a distinction must be drawn between submergence as a consequence of construction of the dam and submergence without the dam. The Bachawat tribunal suggested for avoiding or minimizing as far as possible the excess submergence caused by backwater due to construction of the Polavaram dam. For this purpose the tribunal insisted that the correct backwater effect /level due to Polavaram dam shall be determined by the Central Water Commission (CWC).
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4. Under paragraph 112 the tribunal wanted reduction in full supply levels of the right and left bank canals to slightly lower than +138ft and +137 ft and the effects of such reduction can be made good by introduction of lift irrigation systems on both sides. But Orissa and Madhya Pradesh insisted on 2-9-1979 that in order to limit the submergence to +150 ft, the FRL/MWL must be reduced. But the A.P. State Government prepared Environmental Impact Assessment report [EIA], Dam break analysis and Rehabilitation and Resettlement schemes on the assumption of a 500-year return flood of 36 lakhs cusecs. But the CWC norms of 1973 insist on estimating design flood as Probable Maximum Flood [PMF] or at least 1000 year return flood
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5. In August 2006 the AP state Government increased the design spillway flood from 36 lakhs cusecs to 49.5 lakhs cusecs and hence all the environmental clearances and rehabilitation and resettlement schemes based upon inappropriate data on design spillway flood become invalid and hence fresh clearances must be obtained from the various ministries of Government of India. In order to prepare the backwater curve for Polavaram dam the CWC first of all must estimate the PMF based on various factors including the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP). CWC must revise the existing records by considering the latest reports on the impacts of Global warming due to increasing levels of deforestation and environmental pollution which are said to cause about 20% excess flood flows in Godavari and Narmada basins. CWC must estimate PMF for Polavaram dam based on similar estimates made for Sardar Sarovar Project CWC has estimated for design purposes a return flood period of 1 in 1000 years and the design flood was taken as 87,000 cumecs for the river catchment of 88,000 sq.kms and this is in tune with the latest design criteria formulated by the reputed experts of the International Commission on Large Dams, namely, L.Berga and F.Lemperiere who estimated the extreme flood at the rate of one cubic meter per second for sq.km of the catchment area.
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6. On this basis the peak flood in Godavari at Polavaram for the catchment area of 3,06,643 sq.km comes to about 3,00,000 cumecs/sec which is equivalent to about 100 lakh cusecs and a similar figure of 2,91,693 cumecs was used for sensitive analysis under case-III (B) in the dam break analysis report submitted to the A.P. State Government in June 1999 by the experts of the Roorkee- based National Institute of Hydrology which is a technical wing of the water resources Ministry of the Government of India
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Many countries in the world use Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) as the design flood for embankment dams due to the weakness of structure and a high rate of failure. The overall failure rate is estimated at 1% and the annual failure risk for any dam is about 0.00001.
In China the design flood is used for ordinary dams and structures that are exposed to normal flood conditions. But for structures, whose failure will cause heavy loss of life and property, the PMF should be considered as the extraordinary condition (Check condition) for embankment dams and a 10,000 year flood is adopted for concrete dams. For instance the design check flood criteria for embankment dams of Class-I is taken as PMF or 10,000 return period flood.
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The safety criteria for peak design flood for dams in United Kingdom, USA and International Design Floods in South East Asia under website: http://kfki.baw.de/conferences/ICHE/2002-Warsaw/ARTICLES/PDF/129C=2.pdf
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7. Thus in deciding about the magnitude of Design flood for spillway it is not only the hydrological aspect but also the magnitude of the project in terms of the height of the dam and the water storage that should be considered. Moreover the downstream hazard potential and the type of the dam (concrete or embankment dams) also should be considered for choosing the design flood.This criteria was not followed by the Bachawat tribunal.
In the case of the Polavaram project the experts of the National Institute of Hydrology considered the previous historical flood of 35 lakh cusecs (one lakh cubic meters/sec) but also the flood flow arising from transformation of the stagnant reservoir storage of about 194 TMC behind the dam and the consequential flow and hence the inflow flood was taken as 1,70,000 cumecs. If the Polavaram project gets rid of the dam and replaces it with a barrage there will be only natural peak floods of the order of historical flood of 1986 of one lakh cumecs which can be handled by the existing structures
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8. Hence a barrage must be preferred at Polavaram instead of the dam because the dam contributes for a huge quantity of extra flood flow that causes a disaster, killing millions of people in Godavari delta. Such a catastrophic failure of the dam leads to economic ruination of the Andhra Pradesh state in particular and the whole country in general. Since Orissa and Chattisgarh state Governments are against economic ruination of India due to a Dam burst at Polavaram, a revision of the project must be made immediately
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The people of Orissa and Chattisgarh are worried that there will be extensive additional submersion of forest lands and tribal villages and displacement of thousands of tribals from Chattisgarh and Orissa due to construction of a big dam instead of barrage across Godavari at Polavaram. They are shocked that while the original interstate agreement between Andhra Pradesh, Chattisgarh and Orissa has been based on peak flood discharge of 36 lakhs cusecs on the basis of a 500-year return flood while the Central Water Commission [CWC] directed AP state to follow the Design standards for Dams and redesign the project for Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) which is about 1.5 times the previous historical flood, the PMF is estimated at 49.5 lakh cusecs
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9. Due to this change in peak flood for spillway design, the original character of the whole project has been drastically changed and hence the Bachawat Tribunal Award based upon the interstate agreement dt. 2-4-1980 and the endorsement dt.3-4-1980 of the Government of India make the Award invalid under the present conditions including Environmental Protection Act,1986 that came into operation in 1986. Hence the project has to be redesigned
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10. A.P. State Government originally promised that Polavaram dam water storage will be so regulated that the submersion of lands and villages in Orissa and Chattisgarh will not exceed +150ft above the mean sea level. But with the increase of peak flood from 36 lakhs cusecs to the PMF of 49.5 lakhs cusecs, the backwater curve due to the dam is estimated to reach about +190ft elevation at Konta and Motu regions and this will result in extensive submersion of good forests and submersion of about 100 additional villages . Such a large scale submersion will cause migration of lakhs tribals into the upper hilly areas for resettlement where extensive deforestation will cause havoc to the local eco-systems, soil erosion and siltation of tanks and reservoirs in the lower regions
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11. Since Godavari will have floods only for about 3 months from July to September it is not possible to generate 960 MW of hydro-electricity during the remain 9 months of the year when there will be not much flow in the river . Hence the contention of the AP State Engineers that they require a huge dam instead of a barrage for the sake of power generation is not correct. This is merely a pretext to have a big dam at Polavaram instead of a barrage as suggested by Dr.A.N.Khosla’s Technical committee of 1953 and Dr.D.N.Gulati’s, Technical Committee of 1963.Thus the project needs to be revised
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Most of the people in Orissa and Chattisgarh regularly undertake pilgrimage to the most famous and Sacred temple of Rama at Bhadrachalam and the lakhs of Hindu devotees of this temple are demanding that they do not want Orissa and Chattisgarh state Governments to agree for the construction of a big dam at Polavaram which has to deal with peak flood of 50 lakhs cusecs and such a flood is bound to have a back- water curve upto Bhadrachalam and the back-up flood waters will drown this holy temple and that should be avoided to protect the culture of the people of the region
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12 During August 2006 the floods in Godavari at the level of 28.5 lakh cusecs is reported to have inundated lands which affected 2.5 lakhs of people in 369 villages while the state Government estimated that for a peak flood of 36 lakhs cusecs about 1,80,000 people will be displaced from 276 villages including 4 from Chattisgarh and 8 from Orissa. Hence the A.P. State Government has under-estimated the figures for inundation due to floods. It is estimated that about 100 villages will be effected in the upper states including 30 villages in Chattisgarh. Hence the Polavaram dam must be constructed without submerging any forests and tribal villages in Orissa and Chattisgarh
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13. With regard to the action to be taken by the people of Andhra Pradesh for obtaining the Godavari waters by diverting the same from Polavaram they must consider the objections raised by the Chattisgarh and Orissa state Governments and also the views of the most reputed experts like Dr.K.L.Rao, Dr. A. N. Khosla and Dr. N.D. Gulati under the existing circumstances the people of Andhra Pradesh must exert pressure over their elected representatives to demand for a barrage in place of a very hazardous dam to augment water supply in Krishna river and thereby provide water for drought prone districts of Rayalaseema and Telangana
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It is only the Engineers and bureaucrats who fighting for a big dam for their own selfish interests even at the cost of public interest. If necessary public debates must be conducted in different places in the state so that the interests of the interests of the state and the nation are protected. The people of Orissa must debate on this crucial problem and advise the Government on the action to be taken to avoid a man-made disaster so that the economic disaster of the nation can be avoided
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Sep 23, 2007
Prof.T.Shivaji Rao,
Director, Centre for Environmental Studies,
Gitam University, Visakhapatnam- 530 045 INDIA
e-mail: profshivajirao@gmail.com
11:46 అపరాహ్నం వద్ద సెప్టెంబరు 29, 2007 |
When Dr.K.L.Rao,the most eminent irrigation expert who was deeply involved in the polavaram project and when prof.T.shivaji Rao,an international environmentalist who was again engaged by the Andhra pradesh state Government as an environmental expert for assessing the Environmental Impacts of Polavaram project in 1980’s have been presenting full scientific and technical data to prove that the project is highly under-designed and is ultimately bound to collapse during its lifetime because of the maximum credible accident due to extreme floods,earthquakes,terrorist activities,failure of one or more dams in the upstrem side in the basin states,mechanical or human failures,why is it that other civil engineers in the state or country refuse to come foreward to tell the state Cabinet ministers or the elected members of the state legislature or parliament about the risks involved and the alternate strategies suggested by Dr.A.N.Khosla committee and the Gulhati committees appointed by the Union Government to suggest the optimium ways of utilisation of Godavari and Krishna waters?
The Chief minister of Andhra pradesh is even to-day demanding the intellectuals to give good suggestions so that the mistakes,if any,in the design of the irrigation projects can be rectified even now.Better late than never.Let the Institution of Engineers[India]organise debates at different centres in the state and the country and come out with a sound technical data either in favour of the project in its present form or suggest some alternate methods of achieving the transfer of surplus Godavari water into Krishna river as envisaged by the A.P.state Government with minimum cost to provide water to Rayalaseema and Telengana areas
Dr.T.Srinivas,B.E.,M.E.,Ph.D.,
Associate professor,
Gitam university,visakhapatnam
12:22 పూర్వాహ్నం వద్ద సెప్టెంబరు 30, 2007 |
It is surprising that Indian Civil Engineers seem to be least bothered to come out with true facts on the safety and risks pertaing to the Gigantic Polavaram project.While Dr.K.L.Rao said in 1983 that because of the very poor spill-way design ,the polavaram Dam is going to collapse due to extreme floods,prof.T.shivaji rao asserts that according to the Roorkee-bsed experts of National Institute of Hydrology which is an active wing of the Union ministry of water Resources,the flood wave consequent to an inevitable dam-break is going to provide watery grave to 45 lakhs of people of Godavari delta and thereby result in the economic ruination of the state and the country.Our Prime minister is said to be an expert economist as also our planning commission members who plan for sustainable development of the nation to eliminate poverty and unemployment.Buit the present case of polavaram project,neither the central water power commission nor the planning commission ,the parliament or the state legislature seem to be aware of this serious controversey that may spell doom to the nation.The expert engineers of the state like shri T.Hanumantha Rao,Vidya sagar Rao,Prabhakar,Veeraiah,Dharma RaoVenkata Rao,Lavakush Reddy and others must come forward to express their views for or against the opinions expressed by Dr.K.L.Rao ad prof.T.Shivaji Rao on the safety and economy of the proposed polavaram project so that it can be revised even at this late hour or else the future generations of Andhras will not forgive these experts for their sins of ommission or commission .It is the duty of civil engineers to advise the the Chief minister with correct facts and figures particularly when there is a controversey on a major project like polavaram at a time when some projects have collapsed recently,like Gundlavagu and varadarajaswami
gudi in Andhra pradesh state for one reason or the other.
T.V.Rama Rao.M.Com.,[M.B.A]
Deputy Manager,World Diamond Manufacturing Co.
visakhapatnam
8:49 పూర్వాహ్నం వద్ద అక్టోబర్ 6, 2007 |
A.P.State argued before the Bachawat tribunal in the initial stagesof their hearings[para 93 of first report of the Tribunal]that the proposed barrage at polavaram will have F.R.L at
+145 feet and minimum pond level at +45 ft.,But a subsequent report of May 1978 puts height of Earth-cum-rockfill dam with 2 spillways on right flank with 50 radial gates 50 Nos[50ftx42ft] for the peak designed flood of 0.102M.cum.[36 lakh cusecs] and the MDDL and FRL are fixed at +44.20m[145 ft.] and +45.72m[150ft]
respectively.CWC warned A.P.state that since the observed flood at
Konta reached +46.95m[152.88ft.,] in1966[about22 lakhs cusecs],the stipulation that flood at Motu /Konta should not exceed 150 ft.,is impossible to implement and hence the inter-state agreements should be revised.The tribunaql was told that even with natural maximum floods,Motu/Konta experience flood level at +167.88 ft. and if the +150 level Dam is built,the flood level will touch +173.83 ft., and hence to avoid the temporary submersion A.P.state will construct and maintain protective embankments.
Bachawat Tribunal award of April 1980 states that polavaram must be designed for spillway flood discharge of 36 lakhs cusecs and that the Back-water levels must be determined by the Central water Commission[CWC].In the middle of August 2006,CWC is directed A.P.state to revise the spillway design flood from 36 lakhs cusecs to 49.5 lakhs cusecs and hence the old inter-state Agreements and the Bachawat Award of 1980 become invalid to-day for the polavaram Dam construction.
Motu/Konta experienced submersion at+152.88 ft.for 22 lakhs cusecs floods in 1966 and at+166.08ft.for 36 lakhs cusecs floods in 1986,indicating that for every increase of one lakh cusecs of flood,the inundation level will rise by about one foot.In addition,the construction of an obstruction like massive polavaram dam increases the inundation level at Motu/konta by about 8 ft.Based on these simple calculations,it can be seen that with the polavaram dam,Motu/Konta will face submersion due to peak floods upto +174
ft .,for 36 lakhs cusecs,upto+180 ft.for 42 lakhs cusecs.,upto +186ft.for 48 lakhs cusecs and more than 190 ft.,for 50 lakhs cusecs.It also means that Bhadrachalam will have flood level at about
+210 ft., and this means that Bhadrachalam town and Rama temple will most likely get drowned.
The NGO’s working to save the forests,tribals and wild life on the upstream side of the polavaram dam must use this basic information and get hold of the Survey of India maps and draw the contours for the above levels and estimate the exact villages that may get drowned due to peak floods.Similarly,political parties must educate the 45 lakhs of people who will be killed due to a maximum credible accident for various reasons like sabotage,Extreme floods,bombing,
Earthquakes,collapse of other dams [or sudden release of flash floods to save their own dams such as Jayakwadi,Sriram sagar and Kolab in the upper regions and states that cause flash floods during a rainy season] or cyclonic periods,mechanical or human failures etc.
NGO leaders like Prof.Jai Prakash Rao,bharat Bhushan,Dr.G.Bhiksham,Dr.sivarama krishna ,Prof.K.purushotham reddy,prof.kodanda Reddy,prof.Muthyam reddy,Dr.K.L.vyas and Dr.Vinod Goud must get alerted to debate on these problems and come out with statements for or against these expert opinions and help the central and state Government agencies to arrive at proper decisions in the interests of the people and the Nation..A.Pstate Enginees like Vidya sagar Rao,prabhakar,Maruthi,Dharma Rao and T.hanumantha Rao must come forward to speak out on the merits and demerits of the suggestions made by the Engineering stalwarts like Dr.K.L.Rao,Dr.A.N.Khosla and Gulhati for constructinof a Barrage at Polavaram.If the present day state Environmentalists and Eminent civil engineers fail to take keen interest in saving the people living upstrem and Downstream of polavaram from the avoidable flood disasters,posterity will not forgive them for their sins of omission and commission since Central and state government officials and elected representatives cannot be expected to be accountable under the present day democratic set up which more undemocratic in its functioning.
Potnuru Subhashini.B.Com.,D.C.A.
9:07 అపరాహ్నం వద్ద అక్టోబర్ 7, 2007 |
Why not convert polavaram Dam into a Barrage?
When stalwarts like Dr.K.L.Rao and prof.t.shivaji Rao are asserting that polavaram dam is going to definitely collapse due to a maximum credible accident in its life time,why should any responsible authorities at the central or state Governmental levels take one-track decisions without trying to arrange for an open debate on the environmental implications of the proposed major dam and what are the alternatives that can be considrered among the suggestions made by Dr.A.N.Khosla,N.D.Gulhati , T.Hanumantha Rao or prof.T.Shivaji Rao in the light of the web sites prepared by him on this crucial problem?
Why should not the advocates,doctors,Professors,Political leaders,
intellectuals and the women and children living in the Delta regions of Godavari take interest and try to save the people who are going to be victimised in case of a dam burst?Common people and farmers expect that the educated elite will naturally come foreward to debate on the subject and advise the people on the action to be taken by them to save the future of the Nation for ensuring sustainable development of the state and the Nation.Educated people must help the farmers to improve their quality oftheir own life and that of their progeny.
Dr.T.Srinivas.M.E.,Ph.D.,Associate professor
11:41 అపరాహ్నం వద్ద అక్టోబర్ 8, 2007 |
Democracy means,a Government of the people,by the people and for the people as amplified by the famous Supreme Court Judge,Hon’ble V.R.Krishna Iyer who says it is the duty of the people to protect their own lives and properties by direct participation in a democratic manner.Even Mahatma Gandhi said long ago in 1947 thus.”Today I am putting Nehru on the throne and he is the uncrowned king of India.To err is human and Nehru is a human being.So,if in the course of administering this country,he happens to commit a mistake,who will correct his mistakes?Neither his ministers nor his secretaries to the Government will not dare to correct his misatakes because of their vested interests.Then should the interests of the common man suffer?No.You ,the people of India who fought for the freedom of the country must come forward to correct such mistakes.Otherwise,you are unfit as citizens of this great social welfare state”he told the people who assembled at the meeting.
Even,Mrs.Indira Gandhi felt the same way and hence amended Art.51 A of the constitution and added a clause[g] making environmental protection as the fudametal responsibility of the citizens.To-day,if the people in the Government and the colleges and Universities are not able to come out with their views on polavaram dam and its impacts and advise the state and central Governments,posterity will not forgive the present generation of intellectuals,social activists,academicians,politicians and bureaucrats for their sins of ommission and commission in finding an alternate scheme for the most hazardous polavaram project.
A.Bhujangarao,Amalapuram.Godavari Delta
3:11 అపరాహ్నం వద్ద అక్టోబర్ 23, 2007 |
Visit saveandhrapradesh.com http://www.saveandhrapradesh.com/ to discuss on burning issues in AP
7:34 అపరాహ్నం వద్ద డిసెంబరు 27, 2007 |
sir,
Please find the attachment in regard of polavaram dam as i said to you.
Chary
Sr.Reporter.
Rajahmundry
7:35 అపరాహ్నం వద్ద డిసెంబరు 27, 2007 |
sir,
plase find
12:43 పూర్వాహ్నం వద్ద మార్చి 18, 2008 |
Central Water Commission[CWC] also under-estimates peak Design floods in Godavari, thereby makes Polavaram Dam ,a prescription for the Most shocking National Economic Disaster ?
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According to News paper reports dated 10-10-2006 the A.P.state proposes to construct a few China-wall like embankments to protect several villages of Khammam District likely to be inundated due to floods due to construction of polavaram dam.These structures will be 44 Km.long with a height of 189 feet,with a free board of 6 ft. above the level of 183.6 ft.,the peak flood mark that touched during the 35 lakh cusecs flood of August,1986.The cost is estimated at Rs.307 crores.Such embankments failed to stop inundation of vast areas of the temple town of Bhadrachalam during the August ,2006 floods of Godavari river.The Government insisted that polavaram Dam will be able to discharge a peak flood of 49 lakh cusecs .
But the AP State Government must realise that the Central Water Commission [CWC]has adopted a 1000-year return flood for spillway design for Sardar Sarovar project and 10,000-year return flood for the Tehri dam because Tehri dam failure is likely to cause the death of several lakhs of people in Rishikesh and Haridawar and other towns in gangetic belt in addition to large scale economic damages to crops and properties. The AP State Government stated that the 1986 kind floods occur once in 500 years while 49 lakh cusec floods occur once in 1000 years.
The basic mistake being committed by the AP state Government and the Central Government istheir failure to consider that the probable maximum flood (PMF) shall not only be based on hydrological and technological considerations but also on the socio-economic and environmental considerations including major catastrophic dam failure hazards as per the modern methods followed for the design of the dam and the spillway in almost all the major countries of the world. Since India is also member of the international committee on large dams[ICOLD] it is the duty of the central water commission to revise the design flood of 50 lakhs cusecs [cubic feet per second] as recently calculated by it in October,2006 for the polavaram project to atleast 75 lakhs cusecs .This view is on the basis of the inflow flood of 1,70,000 cumecs[cubic meters per second] equivalent to about 60 lakhs cusecs as adopted by the eminent hydrological experts of the National Institute of Hydrology[NIH], Roorkee who conducted the dam break analysis operations in June 1999.Dam break analysis was done at the specific request of the Andhra Pradesh state Government for the purpose of preparing disaster management , risk analysis and environmental management programmes as per the conditions stipulated under the regulations of the environmental impact assessment report prepared as per rules of the Environmental Protection Act 1986.
Moreover the Central Water Commission[CWC] while estimating the 1000-year return period flood for spillway design of the Sardar Sarovar Project had concluded that for the catchment area of 88,000 sq.km of Narmada River, the maximum flood was estimated at 87,000cumecs and this means that the peak flood estimate comes to about one cumec [cubic meter per second]per sq.km area. Since Godavari catchment area is having similar characteristics and is also adjacent to Narmada catchment in terms of meteorological and topographical features,the probable Maximum Flood[ PMF ]at Polavaram under similar conditions has to be estimated at about 2 lakhs cumecs which is equivalent to about 75lakhs cusecs . Surprisingly, if the water storage in polavaram is transformed into an additional incremental flood in case of a dam failure ,the additional reservoir -based flood comes to about 70,000 cumecs that is equivalent to about 25 lakhs cusecs .Consequently, the inflow design flood for polavaram project must be taken as 100 lakh cusecs which is the actual magnitude of flood estimated by the eminent hydrological experts of the National Institute of Hydrology[NIH] in their report on dam break analysis for polavaram project submitted to the AP State Government as already stated above.In view of the anticipated deaths of lakhs of people in the Gangetic belt due to a hypothetical failure of Tehri Dam,CWC has considered areturn flood of 10,000 years period amounting to15,540 Cumecs[cubic meters per second] from a catchment area of 7,550 sq.km.Since Polavaram Dam is located in a more hazardous site with many highly vulnerable towns and cities,CWC must follow the international guidelines for the design of this major project and should not plan to wipe out of existence 45 lakhs of people in Godavari delta by resorting to the underdesigning of the spillway of Polavaram by using a very low value of 50 lakhs cusecs of probable maximum flood. Eminent irrigation Expert,Padmabhushan,Dr.K.L.Rao,a former Union Minister for Irrigation&Power,had already warned the A.P.state Government in April 1983 that since polavaram dam spillway is highly underdesigned,the project is bound to fail and Godavari water cannot be expected to transferred into krishna river as anticipated under this project.If polavaram project is designed as a barrage,it will be a safe project like the cotton barrage and if it is designed like a dam with storage of about 200 Thousand cubic feet[TMC] of water,this storage gets converted into huge flood of over 24 lakh cusecs,equivalent to peak flood of a river like Krishna and hence when the dam fails due to a maximum credible accident,the millions of people downstream of polavaram have not only bear the burden of the 1986 flood of 36 lakhs cusecs but also the polavaram reservoir induced additional flood of 24 lakhs cusecs for which the existing river banks do not have the carrying capacity with the result that all the 50 lakhs of peple downstream in all cities,towns and villages in the godavari delta will face a watery grave.
That is why the polavaram project cannot be taken up as a big storage dam but should be constructed only as a safe barrage as recommended by the former Eminent Technical Experts of both the Union Government and the Central Water Commission like Dr.A.N.khosla[in 1953],Mr.Gulhati [in 1963]and Dr.K.L.Rao[in 1983] after making an honest and in-depth technical assessment of the optimal utilisation of Godavari and krishna river waters at the request of the Government of India during the periods mentioned above.
Prof.T.Shivaji Rao,
Director, Centre for Environmental Studies, Gitam University,
Visakhapatnam-530 045 INDIA
Phone: 0891 – 2504902, 2738211, Cell: 91-9949319038
e-mail: profshivajirao@gmail.com,
profshivajirao@hotmail.com
http://www.eoearth.org/contributor/Shivaji.rao
http://www.geocities.com/prof_shivajirao/resume.html
7:49 అపరాహ్నం వద్ద మార్చి 11, 2009 |
to consider my Thesis on “Strategic Destruction Indian
Economy due to Bauxite mining in Eastern and Western Ghats and its Impact
on Millions of Lively hoods”, inconjuction with your thesis on polavaram
project. It would spell a dooms day for Andhrapradesh and India as Such.
It is available at http://www.ucy.in/ucy/msg/minimpact.html/